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LONGFORM

The Asian Era

December 9, 2022November 13th, 202315 min read

Good day, it is now the 9th of December, the 20th day of the FIFA World Cup! Since it was on this day in 1961, in Jerusalem that Adolf Eichmann was ruled guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death, AND the day the first Palestinian Intifada began in 1987, so I think today I must focus on new developments in the Middle East, or as it should soon be called : West Asia. Shout out to my Polish friends though – who I know are not as mad as their government seems to be – on the anniversary of the election of Gabriel Józef Narutowicz in 1922, the first President of Poland after it regained sovereignty from the Partitioning Powers, and of Lech Wałęsa in 1990, who’s cabinet presided over the country’s “transition to a free market economy”, much like our Németh or Antall governments. I cannot judge, it is up to the Polish people who ten years later gave the same man 1.1% of the vote. 

The rapid reorganisation of the world has not paused or even slowed down while I was off social media. Despite the main flashpoint – where Time Person of the Year stores Sean Penn’s Oscar – we know this is a struggle of global dimensions, so let’s look at just one huge event, and a single region of the world. As you might have already seen, there is a massive historic Chinese-Arab Summit underway in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where President Xi Jinping has landed yesterday. After his plane landed – escorted by Royal Saudi Air Force fighters – he was greeted on lavender carpets with sadu weave designs on the side – a traditional Bedouin practice, on Unesco’s list of Intangible Heritage – as an honoured guest, and Saudi Hawks painted the sky red and yellow, the colours of China. His arrival was heralded by a 21-gun salute, and he was met with King Khalid, plus the Governor of Riyadh province, and several ministers. Contrast that to Bobblehaed Baiden’s “first-bump” visit not that long ago, after which the Saudis and OPEC+ did the exact opposite of what the Bobblehead begged. President Xi has never been to Saudi Arabia, and this is the first ever Sino-Arab Summit in history, and he didn’t organise it. He was invited. 

Let’s stop right there to make a few things clear. First, you do not need to endorse Mohammad Bin Salman or his Monarchy – I don’t – nor Xi Jinping and his People’s Republic – although I whole-heartedly do – to just examine this event from afar, as one that will have huge and widespread consequences. Second, you have to understand that this is not just a meeting between MBS and Xi, but is a massive summit with a broad list of attendees eager to meet Xi for the first time that includes :

  • Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah
  • Sudan’s Sovereign Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan 
  • Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas 
  • Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani
  • Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi 
  • Tunisia’s President Kais Saied
  • Libya’s Presidency Council head Mohammed al-Menfi

That’s an impressive list of countries that never condemned China for the – Western-alleged – Yoo-ghur issue in China, no Arab State ever has. Before the geopolitical significance of this, I thought I might need to provide some cursory context for the religious landscape here. China – while widely considered Confucian / Atheist, has five official religions ( not to mention 56 ethnic groups! ), Buddhism, Taoism, Islam, Protestantism and Catholicism! This humbles my earlier opinions about religion – at least its organised forms – which had very destructive effects in my country, but seem to be perfectly compatible with China’s Harmony-oriented system. But Islam is not a monolithic faith, it is an interpretive one, so let’s first examine them, in an obviously oversimplified way.

Saudi Arabia practices two forms of Islam that many scholars treat as one : Salafiism which is the idea that the most authentic and true Islam is found in the lived example of the early, righteous generations of Muslims – the Salaf – who were closest in both time and proximity to the Prophet Muhammad, and Wahhabism which is an ultra-conservative version of the former. Unfortunately a hyper-fundamentalist version of the latter was exported – on US payroll – to the alphabet of Jihadi formations in the Middle-East and beyond like Morocco, Indonesia and Checnnya in the early 2000s. 

Iran – a historic rival of the house of Saud – practices Shia Islam, a revolutionary anti-capitalist – but not socialist – interpretation of the Words of the Prophet, encompassed in the Islamic State’s mottos like “Not capitalism but Islam”, “Neither East nor West”, so it is more than a religion, it is the religion-based ideology of Khomeini and the Islamic Revolution, aligned with Cuba, Russia and China in the anti-imperialist bloc, but also aligned with Syria ( including the Sunnis and Christians there ) in an axis of resistance. Syria’s Sunni Islam is a non-fundamentalist interpretation and doesn’t allow splits in Muhammad’s teachings, rather allows pluralist interpretation, encapsulated in the phrase “pluralism within a unitary system”. An offshoot of it is called Diobandism in India, and it used to focus on Hindu-Muslim unity, and opposing the partition of India up until the 20th century when the movement became influenced by US/Saudi imported Salafism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and became militant. 

Finally there is Qatar and Türkiye where the mainstream version of Islam is called the Muslim Brotherhood, in other words Westernized Islam, very Anti-Communist – in this they were allied with Saudi Arabia – Anti-Zionist, high-tech, capitalist version of Islam. It originates with an Egyptian Sheikh – Hassan al-Banna – and began as another Pan-Islamic religious and social movement with an emphasis on charity, but advanced into the political arena and turned rather violent. For the last seven years, the Brotherhood is considered a t*rrorist organisation by Bahrain, Egypt, Russia, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

My muslim friends, please don’t condemn me for being terse, I merely wanted to provide a very basic overview for people not of the faith. The crucial point here is that religion, like ideology evolves over time, shaped by the material conditions underlying and surrounding it, in other words geopolitics. For a couple of centuries the schools of faith in these key regions were shaped by ( British and American ) imperial conflict, causing – encouraging – division that just a year ago seemed insurmountable. Iran’s Shia and Saudi Arabia’s Wahabi schools of thought were mortal enemies, irreconcilable. Syrian Sunni pluralism was at odds with Saudi fundamentalism and the state Israel, etc. But these divisions are as transitional as the Chechen war was, when I remember commentators saying that after all this death and carnage the hate for Russia would last forever. Well, look at Chechnya now!

So let’s look at the material, the economic undertones, looking exclusively at Western news sources, in a compressed way : According to Bloomberg – graph under sources – China has replaced the US as Saudi Arabia’s top trade partner as far back as 2012, accounting for 84% of trade today. Last March, Saudi Aramco energy company agreed to prioritise China’s energy supply for the next 50 years, above all else. In February this year, Saudi Aramco signed a $10 billion deal to build an Oil Refinery in China – the largest Sino-Saudi joint venture so far – by 2024. Just a year ago the United Arab Emirates suspended F-35 talks with the US citing unfair conditions, and only a few months later, ordered a dozen L-15 planes from China, with the option of purchasing 36 more. 

And finally, after all the disgusting hypocrisy from the Western ( especially European ) Mainstream media surrounding the World Cup, on the 2nd day of the event the Qatari government signed a 27-year Liquified Natural Gas deal with China. That’s twenty seven years of uninterrupted development of her economy! Remember when German-Green lunatic Habeck visited Qatar and came home with supposed “guarantees” of a gas deal, and a day later Doha said they knew nothing about such a deal? They wanted short-term help, as Europe struggles to get through her first winter without Russian energy, but China is signing deals for a quarter of a century.. ( I have to add that Germany finally caved and signed its own 15-year deal, just before December ). 

And then came this Summit. The Saudi Government signed 45 Investment Agreements with China in the sectors of : Green Hydrogen and Photovoltaic ( solar ) energy, Information Technology and Cloud Service ( hello Huawei ), Transportation and Logistics, Medicine, Housing and Construction. Do you remember the recent – sham of a – G20 summit at Bali? Did you notice that the entire event was catered to by a fleet of Chinese Wuling NEV ( New Energy Vehicles ) manufactured in an Indonesian factory? I did. And actual, sound renewable energy is a priority not only for China but for the forward looking gulf states. Did you notice that the entire information and AI infrastructure for the World Cup was by Huawei? Now you do. 

So let’s put this into context. As you know this Sunday the C7 ( Collapsing Seven ) inked the $60 Russian Oil Price-Cap, in other words an unprecedented Buyer’s Cartel into existence. Ursula von der Sparrow is actively seeking to steal Russia’s Sovereign Reserves held and frozen in Europe. The world has been watching these steps closely and with concern. China – constantly in the Western Media crosshairs – know that whatever happens to Russia will likely happen to them next. The Gulf states know that whatever happens to Russian Oil and Gas can happen to theirs next. And here we have their answer. The gulf is looking for sanction-proof buyers, China is looking for reliable long-term energy once it opens up, people start driving and flying and demand skyrockets – something closer than most people think. The official reason is given to us by Saudi Columnist Abdulrahman Al-Rashed in Asharq Al-Awsat:

“Beijing does not burden its partners with demands or political expectations and refrains from interfering in their internal affairs.” 

In other words win-win cooperation, no meddling. Speculation begins! But I would put it to you that there is more to this. According to the New York Times of all places, the two countries have signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, but if you scroll down you find that it is not only about energy but “a programme to build a robust local defence industry”. And this is where we pause. We know that as far back as March the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia is “considering” accepting Yuan instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales. We know that today Global Times – the Communist Party of China’s authoritative outlet and newspaper – published the following headline : Strengthened China-Saudi ties raise prospects for use of Yuan in oil settlement. 

My speculation is that this is much more than just a reliable energy partnership. This may be the first real shot at the US economy, propped up by the petrodollar since in 1974, when the Gulf States – with Saudi Arabia at the helm – agreed to price all energy deals in USD. Every country in the world had to buy US treasury bonds in order to pay for the most vital fundament of any economy : Energy. Russia has been selling her energy resources in local currencies, like the Ruble, Yuan and Rupee, but the Petrodollar agreement was still untouched. If – I stress again, this is just me thinking – the Saudis make this massive step, the world will have an alternative, and $31 trillion in US debt will need to be sold to someone, in an environment when nobody wants it. Also, who will buy Eurobonds – they are issued whenever the EU borrows – when nobody thinks the Bloc is economically viable?

I have two concluding thoughts on this possibility. First, I don’t believe even Saudi Arabia can make such a huge move without serious military guarantees from the Big Boys ( Russia and China ), not that we know of any, but this new partnership in Defence, in other words Military seems to hint at something like that. Second, I don’t believe China’s immediate goal is a collapsed United States economy, it would be far too dangerous. So while I think this Summit is a significant opening round in this upcoming conflict of currencies, I think it’s aim is to slowly, and in a limited scope provide an alternative to the Dollar that’s strangling every other currency by exporting the US inflation over the globe. Why not just wait for Western contradictions to play out by themselves? That sounds much more like China to me.

I think the new world has already been drawn – imperfectly, as shown by numerous youtube news channels like TFI and FirstPost dedicated to loving Russia while hating China – but it is slowly asserting itself, working out the kinks. There is always talk about the new commodity based currency that BRICS is working on, but it is a slow process that is likely to take years. And if former mortal enemies like Saudi Arabia and Iran can cooperate in organisations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – both are on their way to becoming full members – what effect will it have on their cultural and religious differences? Do you think they can change with the passage of time, notice how great power conflict has morphed them against one another and maybe even reconcile?

I think the Asian World is already here and every leader with a brain wants to be a part of it. End of speculation. Now I know there is also an EAEU summit in Bishkek today, and one of the main topics will be forming a gas partnership, or OGEC, which I will follow closely, but I want to do better, not more. 

Have a lovely Friday afternoon or evening, or Saturday morning down under, whatever sky looks down on you reading these lines. I will leave you instead with a twitter user’s account and video of what he calls the Best World Cup Ever. Albi says : 

“Every single World Cup I have ever watched in my Life had people being drunk af and fighting and assaulting each other. This World Cup I have seen Arabs, Blacks, Whites, Asians all dance together to some random Arab songs. Its genuinely the best WC ever man”

Peace, Land and Bread

From Facebook Archives : 9 December 2022

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